North Darfur, Sudan

Results from surveys conducted at lower adminstrative level

Tomás Zaba

2025-03-28

  • Um Kaddada had 97.5% of data missing GPS coordinates –> Excluded from the analysis
  • El Lait had 46% of the data missing GPS coordinates

Results

El Fasher & Tawila

Spatial Variation of GAM by WFHZ

Survey sampling points

Predicted surface map

Choropleth map: Locality

Predicted Estimates of GAM by WFHZ

Observed Locality prevalence estimates vs predicted prevalence
locality Observed prevalence (%) Predicted prevalence (%) bias Minimum prevalence (%) Maximum prevalence (%) Median prevalence (%)
El Fasher 19.74 24.34 4.6 1.34 41.32 24.48
Tawila 26.58 21.69 -4.9 1.64 43.55 23.59

Did the Model Fit the Data?


R² = 0.918

  • Almost perfect positive correlation

Spatial Variation of GAM by MUAC

Survey sampling points

Predicted surface map

Choropleth map: Locality

Predicted Estimates of GAM by MUAC

Observed Locality prevalence estimates vs predicted prevalence
locality Observed prevalence (%) Predicted prevalence (%) bias Minimum prevalence (%) Maximum prevalence (%) Median prevalence (%)
El Fasher 21.10 19.63 -1.47 1.35 41.33 23.87
Tawila 21.95 21.87 -0.08 1.91 43.73 23.16

Did the Model fit the Data?

R² = 0.917

  • Almost perfect positive correlation

Results

Al Lait & At Tawisha

Spatial Variation of GAM by WFHZ

Survey sampling points

Predicted surface map

Choropleth map: Locality

Predicted Estimates of GAM by WFHZ


⚠️ Values in columns 3, 5-7 need to be revised when I get a Shapefile that splits El Lait and El Taweisha localities into two
locality Observed prevalence (%) Predicted prevalence (%) bias Minimum prevalence (%) Maximum prevalence (%) Median prevalence (%)
El Lait 24.78 23.97 -0.81 4.34 45.99 26.27
El Taweisha 28.85 23.97 -4.89 4.34 45.99 26.27

Did the Model Fit the Data?


R² = 0.668

  • Positive and strong correlation

Spatial Variation of GAM by MUAC

Survey sampling points

Predicted surface map

Choropleth map: Locality

Predicted Estimates of GAM by MUAC


⚠️ Values in columns 3, 5-7 need to be revised when I get a Shapefile that splits El Lait and El Taweisha localities into two
locality Observed prevalence (%) Predicted prevalence (%) bias Minimum prevalence (%) Maximum prevalence (%) Median prevalence (%)
El Lait 17.67 23.97 6.30 6.68 44.13 26.28
El Taweisha 22.75 23.97 1.21 6.68 44.13 26.28

Did the Model fit the Data?

R² = 0.66

  • Positive and strong correlation